maintains a managed, floating exchange rate system, although in the absence of
effective competition in the interbank foreign exchange market. The central bank
being the major supplier of foreign exchange, exchange rate movements have
been highly compromised. The currency, the Birr, is not convertible. Government
carefully monitors and controls its movement and, as a result, it trades in a very
narrow range. After depreciating 4.0 percent against the dollar in 2006, the Birr
exchange rate dropped by 2.3 percent in 2007 and retreated an additional 1.3
percent in the year-to-date period ending March 5. The Birr is widely considered
to be overvalued particularly given Ethiopia’s high inflation rate which was 18.4
percent in the year ending December 2007. This was slightly higher than the
17.2 percent rise in the year ending December 2006. Greater exchange rate
flexibility is needed to better reflect demand for, and supply of, foreign exchange.
297
As the country considers it necessary to enhance foreign exchange inflows from
its large Diaspora community, the CRM noted that the NBE, through Directive
No. FXD/30/2006, introduced measures to encourage and facilitate these
inflows. Available statistics indicate that these measures are achieving desired
objectives; inflows of remittances increased over time; from US$ 53 million in
2000 to a high of USD$ 359 million in 2007.
Interest Rates
298
The CRM learnt that, with the exception of the minimum savings deposit rate
(MSDR) used by the NBE as a monetary policy instrument, all interest rates
are now market-determined. The MSDR is currently set at 4.0 percent. There
is, however, some concern that the government controls interest rates and sets
them below the high inflation rate. Commercial banks are not given any interest
rate spread limit, resulting in lending rates varying from bank to bank, with an
average rate of 11.0 percent in recent times.
Fiscal deficits
299
With continuing efforts at achieving fiscal sustainability, GoE’s fiscal policy has
been targeted at reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP, while at the
same time focusing on expanding socio-economic service delivery and investing
in critical infrastructure. To this end, several measures, including rationalising
public expenditure, adjusting public sector salaries, limiting the number of zerotariff related items and import exemptions, and broadening the tax base, have
led to gradual declines in the overall deficit as a percentage of GDP. Excluding
grants, the overall fiscal deficit decreased from 16.4 percent in 2002/03 to about
13.0 percent in 2003/04; this declined further to 8.6 percent of GDP in 2007/08.
The overall fiscal deficit, including grants, fell to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2007/08,