the Sahel region have also undermined the work of CENSAD.115 The lack of movement on integration in ECCAS has been attributed, at least in part, to conflicts in several member states.116 The TFTA, concluded in June 2015, brings together COMESA, the EAC and SADC to create a free trade zone by 2017 that would extend from Egypt in the north to South Africa in the south, taking in Africa‘s eastern seaboard and the whole Southern African region. It would encompass 26 countries with more than 630 million people. It remains to be seen how this will play out, since much technical detail remains to be negotiated and implementation is still to be carried out. In addition to the main agreement, the TFTA comprises 15 annexes, dealing with such matters as customs cooperation, simplification and harmonisation of trade documentation and procedures, rules of origin, intellectual property rights and non-tariff barriers. According to a detailed report in late October 2016, much remained to be done – a number of countries had not even formally signed the agreement. It remains to be seen whether the timeframe is ultimately feasible and what the real impact will be should it come to fruition.120 Recent developments in the field of closer economic integration A few major developments which largely post-date the reviewed CRRs are the launch of the Boosting IntraAfrican Trade (BIAT) initiative, the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) and negotiations towards the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA), which were launched by the June 2015 AU Assembly Decision.117 The CFTA, once concluded, will produce a market encompassing 55 African countries and over a billion people. The importance of the CFTA as a driver for African development and prosperity is clearly widely understood. Doubts have, however, been expressed as to whether the tight timeframe to conclude it by the end of 2017 is feasible, given the range of issues and the number of participants. However, the potential of this arrangement is encouraging. Trade within this region is believed to comprise a greater proportion of value-added goods than that existing between it and the rest of the world. 121 One analysis – using economic modelling – suggested that the TFTA had the potential to boost intra-regional trade by some 29%. Manufacturing sectors would benefit most from this, a welcome finding given the emphasis development thinking places on value-adding. However, given the generally modest level of intra-regional trade to begin with, these changes would represent a relatively small increase in output. Indeed, this study cautions that abolishing tariffs and allowing the ‗free‘ movement of goods would need to be complemented by such measures as upgrading infrastructure and eliminating non-tariff barriers to enable the TFTA to make a substantive difference.122 Closely related to the CFTA agenda is the BIAT initiative, which recognises that trade among the continent‘s countries is limited, and that this precludes it from taking advantage of economies of scale. Expanding trade within Africa would yield significant developmental benefits. BIAT proposes to do this through seven ‗programme clusters‘: trade policy; trade facilitation; productive capacity; trade-related infrastructure; trade finance; trade information; and factor market integration.118 Thus far, the practical impact of BIAT seems to have been small. One analysis commented that progress has been ‗disappointing, slow and uncoordinated‘.119 115 116 117 118 119 Nickels B, „Morocco‟s Engagement with the Sahel Community‟ (3 January 2013). Allison S, “Spelling out the need to unify”, 22 Africa in Fact (1 May 2014), http://admin.gga.org/publications/africain-fact-may-2014-regional-integrationapart-at-the-seams. For more information, see https://www.tralac.org/resources/byregion/cfta.html. African Union Commission and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Boosting Intra-African Trade: Issues Affecting Intra-African Trade, Proposed Action Plan for boosting Intra-African Trade and Framework for the fast tracking of a Continental Free Trade Area (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 23-30 January 2012). Sommer L and D Luke, „How can trade policy be used to transform African livelihoods?, (Bridges Africa, 18 October 2016). See also UNECA, Developments on the Boosting Intra-African Trade 120 121 122 31 initiative and the Continental Free Trade Area (7 September 2016). Pan-African Chamber of Commerce and Industry, SADC, EAC and COMESA seek to implement Tripartite Free Trade Area (26 October 2016). Luke D and Z Mabuza, „The Tripartite Free Trade Agreement: a milestone for Africa‟s integration process‟, Bridges Africa (23 June 2015). Mold A and R Mukwaya, The Effects of the Tripartite Free Trade Area: Towards a New Economic Geography in Southern, Eastern and Northern Africa? (Centre for Research in Economic Development and International Trade, Research paper 15/04, 2015).