532.
Nigeria has recently freed itself of its debt obligations, including those of
the Paris and London Clubs of creditors, multilateral and promissory note
creditors, as well as bilateral and private-sector creditors. This has also
had a beneficial impact on investment and growth. As part of the debt
relief deal, saved oil revenues were used to eliminate payment arrears and
to buy back foreign debt at a discount. This reduced foreign debt to below
5 per cent of GDP from 57 per cent in 2003. The resulting good sovereign
credit rating (78 out of 100) was a vote of confidence in the economic
reform efforts. It also enabled Nigerian businesses to have easier and
more affordable access to international finance and capital markets.
533.
The CRM shares the concern expressed by the CSAR about the limited
success in converting macrostability and growth into a diversified
economy, increasing job growth quickly and reducing poverty. Further,
despite reducing fiscal deficits, fiscal policy continues to be limited by a
narrow revenue base. A high level of tax evasion continues despite new
measures to improve tax collection.
534.
The challenges facing monetary policy include persistent high interest
rates and high interest rate spreads despite measures to control inflation.
Finally, several shortcomings in the business environment constitute
significant obstacles to sustained economic growth. They include poor
physical infrastructure, burdensome red-tape, an inhospitable institutional
environment for business, and lack of access to long-term finance.
Exposure to shocks
535.
The CRM findings indicated that Nigeria’s vulnerability to shocks stems
from a number of interrelated factors. They include: high dependence on
the oil sector and its resultant lack of diversification in economic activities;
mismanagement and embezzlement of resources by those in leadership
positions; oil bunkering or bandit activities that undermine the nation’s
capacity to exploit its oil potential fully; recurring labour strikes because
of government’s inability to meet the expectations of workers; and civil
unrest, particularly in the Niger Delta. Exposure to external shocks is
linked to the narrow export base, trade shocks, fluctuations in exchange
rates and climate change. There are many and diverse internal shocks,
including floods, pests, drought, inflation and human insecurity. While oil
revenues appear to have cushioned the economy from external shocks,
diversifying the economy is critical for sustaining resilience to shocks.
Real-sector concerns
Agriculture
536.
164
The CSAR expresses concern about the declining role of agriculture in
Nigeria’s economic development, and it urges government to implement
policy measures aimed at revitalising the sector. CRM interactions with
stakeholders confirmed these concerns and identified some of the key
constraints to agricultural productivity.
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