79 The positive finding in South Africa’s HIV&AIDS response is that there were significant declines in HIV incidence in South Africa between 2004 and 2012. In 2012, there were an estimated 370,000 new HIV infections in South Africa compared to 540,000 new infections in 2004.52 The rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) dropped from 2% in 2004 to 1.4% in 2012 – representing a 30% reduction.53 Spectrum estimates that the number of new HIV incidents has dropped by a quarter between 2004 and 2012, from 460,000 to 350,000, and is expected to gradually decline to 270,000 by 2016. Fig 5. New Infections by Province SA 2004-2016. Source: NDOH/ UNAIDS Spectrum Modelling 2012. Nearly all provinces observed a decline in number of new infections, especially Gauteng (38%), KwaZulu-Natal (32%), Limpopo (32%) and Free State (26%).54 Three provincesMpumalanga, North West and Eastern Cape experienced modest rates of decline in the number of new infections at 11%, 6% and 5% respectively.55 However, two provinces, namely Western Cape and Northern Cape registered a 32% and 20% increase in new infections respectively.56 Migration and structural factors related to activities associated with the extractive and construction industries are ecologically correlated with this increase and call for structural interventions in HIV Prevention programmes and involvement of government departments in economic cluster of government departments, beyond Health. 52 See NDOH/UNAIDS Spectrum Modelling Report, 2012. See NDOH/UNAIDS Spectrum Modelling Report, 2012. 54 See NDOH/UNAIDS Spectrum Modelling Reports, 2012. 55 See NDOH/UNAIDS Spectrum Modelling Report, 2012. 56 See NDOH/UNAIDS Spectrum Modelling Report, 2012. 53 79