change is increasingly accepted as a ‘threat multiplier’.330 Conversely, it has been
found that conflict militates against countries’ adaptive capacity to deal with the
debilitating effects of climate change and environmental degradation, requiring a
double pronged approach that embraces adaption and peacebuilding.331 A 2007,
United Nations Environment Programme post conflict environmental assessment of
Sudan found connections between the environmental risks and conflict in Darfur,
emphasising the need for peacebuilding within environmental management.332
Climate change and environmental degradation by themselves do not necessarily
cause
conflict but can
accelerate structural violence. This is more so where
inadequate governance responses, structures and processes to adapt to climate
change feed into or reinforce perceptions of exclusion or injustice at local levels.333 It
has been posited that violence can erupt and persist when situations such as drought
encounter adverse social and political conditions, that are predisposed towards
fostering ‘more radical attitudes’ or ‘violent interventions against the government.’334
Countries that face any of these conditions and have not successfully built resilience
to climate change stresses are at greater risk of triggering conflict.335 Climate change
has been escalated in the UN Security Council to the level of national security, with
scarcity of or competition for natural resources increasingly referred as a potential
threat multiplier for human disaster and a driver of conflict.336
Violence can erupt and persist when situations such as drought encounter adverse
social and political conditions. 337 Radicalism or violent extremism in the Lake Chad
Basin by Boko is attributed to forces taking advantage of the adverse effects of climate
change on the stability of the region. The Lake Chad Basin has shrunk more than 90
percent since the 1960s resulting in multi-layered crises that combine political, socio330
Climate Change & Environment: Fragility and Conflict , Nexus Brief, Nr. 5, July 2018
Urmilla B, Bronkhorst S. and Salsa S ‘Climate change and conflict: conflict-sensitive adaption in Africa. In:
Urmilla B, Bronkhorst S. and Salsa S. (eds.): Conflict-sensitive adaptation in Africa. . (2014). Berlin: Berliner
Wissenschaftsverlag.
332
UNEP ‘Sudan Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment’ 2007 UN
333
Huntjens P, Nachbar K ‘Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier for Human Disaster and Conflict’ Hague
Institute for Global Justice Working Paper 9 May 2015
334
Detges A ‘Climate and conflict: reviewing the statistical evidence’ Berlin: Adelphi, 2017
335
Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change ‘Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’
Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report
WMO, UNEP, 2007
336
Huntjens P, Nachbar K ‘Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier for Human Disaster and Conflict’ Hague
Institute for Global Justice Working Paper 9 May 2015
337
Detges A ‘Climate and conflict: reviewing the statistical evidence’ Berlin: Adelphi, 2017
331
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