•
The average total debt to GDP was 10.07 per cent.
•
The average fiscal deficit to GDP was 1.75 per cent.
•
The average share of fiscal deficit financed by the CBN was 13.2 per cent.
•
The average share of the total federal budget allocated to social sectors
and community services was 13.86 per cent.
•
The average credit extended to the private sector was 27.8 per cent.
•
The average credit extended to the public sector was 32.38 per cent.
Making macroeconomic projections
478.
The CSAR is critical of the government’s capacity to make credible
macroeconomic projections. It attributes poor macroforecasting to the practice
of benchmarking macroeconomic variables on volatile oil and gas revenues, as
well as on poor macroeconomic management by previous regimes.
479.
Most of the government’s projections for the 2001 to 2005 period were
off target (see table 4.2). It overestimated real GDP but underestimated
unemployment rates and the performance of the nonoil sector. Consequently,
the CSAR recommends that the government improve its oil revenue price
forecasting.
Table 4.2: Selected macroeconomic projections vis-ă-vis actual
(percentages)
PROJECTIONS
ACTUAL
Macroeconomic
variables
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Real GDP growth
rate
10
*
10.2
5
6
4.7
4.6
9.6
6.6
6.2
Growth in nonoil
sector
*
*
3.3
7.3
8.5
*
16.07
13.72
23.51
24.89
10
9
8
8
7
13.6
11.2
11
12.6
*
5
5
9
9
9
18.9
12.9
14
15
17.9
Unemployment
rate
Inflation rate
Source: African Institute for Applied Economics (AIAE), Report on economic governance and
management for the African Peer Review Mechanism, National Focal Point (NFP) Secretariat, Abuja,
Nigeria, 2006, page 61.
480.
The CSAR recommends that the government forecast higher oil revenue prices.
Sectoral microeconomic policies for economic growth
and sustainable development
481.
152
Nigeria has adopted and implemented several sectoral policies and
programmes to support sustainable development. Major sectoral policies
include those for agriculture and food, industry and finance.
Select target paragraph3
Connect to a paragraph
Connect to an entity
Disable highlights
Add to table of contents