and the politics of population census. Each of these policy instruments has spawned its own processes, dynamics and political contestations, and effects on the governance of Nigeria. The abysmal symptoms of this distributive strategy – massive corruption due to a patronage system; electoral irregularities; insidious, built-in violence as a result of competition for resources; and incredible poverty in the midst of plenty – have led to the presumed failure of Nigerian federalism. 112. If the federal distributive strategy constitutes the structural barrier to realising a true federalism in Nigeria, then its superstructure is an institutionalised oligarchy rule, which is the main impediment to deepening democracy in Nigeria. Distributive federalism relies on two main structural factors: first, the total economic dependence on the redistribution of petroleum and gas revenues, and, secondly, the centralisation of resources in a dominant executive (presidency). Thus, the redistribution of centralised resources creates a patronage system whereby the states and regional interests rely solely on the centre for continuing resources because of the lack of diversified sources of revenue. The redistribution of patronage among regional and state interests constitutes a national oligarchy which needs to hold on to power and have continuous access to central resources through any means necessary, including rigging elections, organising violence, constantly reshuffling alliances and avoiding institutionalising political parties. 113. In practice, the informal exercise of power by the Nigerian political oligarchy exerts more control than do the formal institutions. The formal and informal powers converge in the office of the president, who uses the enormous resources at his disposal to reward and cement his patrimonial networks. It is this oligarchic control of the political power system that constitutes a major obstacle to the realisation of democracy in Nigeria with its attendant complexities and dynamics. 114. Unlike the political oligarchies found in other countries, the Nigerian oligarchy is fluid and adaptable, with membership from ethnic, religious and regional segments, where participation is accessible to an array of business interests, politicians, traditional rulers, professional groups, top public servants and even civic and religious leaders. The oligarchic character of Nigeria’s political economy accounts for the profound inequalities, the contested legitimacy of the state and the fragility of political alliances. 115. The nature of oligarchic rule in Nigeria implies that there is constant bargaining among political elites to maintain consensus and control. Thus, the political system is sustained by shifting, accommodating and renegotiating overcentrally distributed rents and access to spoils and patronage. In practical terms, this can mean ‘zoning’ to an ethnic candidate, changing revenue-allocation formulas to favour certain regions, selection of party candidates from the centre, or awarding contracts to particular individuals or groups. 116. Another feature of oligarchic rule in Nigeria is its exclusionary nature. The patronage system excludes most citizens from effective participation or a voice as a result of the lack of internal governance of political parties. 51

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